Selling Inherited Property in a High Rate Market
If you bought a home—or refinanced one—between 2020 and 2021, you likely locked in a mortgage rate in the 2.5% to 3.5% range. For many, it felt like hitting the jackpot. But now, with rates hovering above 7%, buyers and homeowners are wondering: Will home loan rates ever be in the 3’s again?
While no one can predict the future with certainty, looking through the lens of history and economic policy provides a clearer picture of how rare those ultra-low rates were—and why they may not return anytime soon.
Mortgage Rates in Historical Context: A 200+ Year View
The idea of a fixed, 30-year mortgage is relatively modern in the grand scheme of American financial history. In the 18th and 19th centuries, home loans were typically short-term, high-interest, and required large down payments. Records show average borrowing rates in the 5% to 7% range through much of the 1700-1800s.
It wasn’t until the 1930s, during the Great Depression, that the U.S. government stepped in with reforms like the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), which standardized long-term, low-interest home loans and jumpstarted widespread homeownership.
Post-WWII America saw a housing boom with all the soldiers coming home from the war and mortgage rates generally between 4% and 6% through the 1950s and 1960s. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, inflation surged, and the Federal Reserve responded by raising interest rates aggressively. In 1981, the average 30-year mortgage rate peaked at over 18%—a staggering contrast to today’s expectations.
Since then, mortgage rates have gradually trended downward, with occasional bumps during periods of economic uncertainty. But even in the early 2000s, rates in the 6–7% range were considered normal.
The idea of mortgage rates in the 3’s was virtually unheard of—until a once-in-a-century global event shook the economy.
The Perfect Storm That Brought Mortgage Rates into the 3’s
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 triggered a rapid and unprecedented response from the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. In an effort to stave off economic collapse:
- The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to near-zero.
- It launched an enormous quantitative easing (QE) campaign, buying trillions in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the market and suppress borrowing costs.
- The U.S. government passed trillions in stimulus measures, including direct payments to individuals, expanded unemployment benefits, and business relief programs.
- Global uncertainty drove international investors to the relative safety of U.S. bonds, pushing yields—and by extension mortgage rates—even lower.
All these factors collided to create a historic low-rate environment, with 30-year fixed mortgage rates falling below 3% in many cases.
The Consequences of Cheap Money: Bubbles and Inflation
While these emergency measures helped stabilize the economy in the short term, they also had long-term consequences:
- Asset prices soared. Housing markets across the country saw rapid appreciation. Stocks, crypto, and collectibles all surged in value.
- Speculation increased. Cheap borrowing costs encouraged riskier investments and borrowing behaviors.
- The money supply exploded. With more dollars in circulation, demand outstripped supply in many sectors—fueling inflation.
By mid-2021, inflation began to climb quickly. The Fed, initially slow to act, eventually reversed course and began raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. Mortgage rates followed suit, jumping from the 3% range to over 7% within two years.
Low Interest Rates and the Money Supply
A key concept in monetary policy is that lower interest rates lead to more borrowing and more money in circulation. When rates drop, consumers take out more loans, businesses expand, and governments spend more—all of which can increase the money supply.
During the COVID-19 era, this expansion was turbocharged by fiscal stimulus and QE. The M2 money supply (a broad measure of U.S. dollars in circulation) rose by over 40% from 2020 to 2022—an unprecedented surge.
This flood of liquidity helped create economic momentum, but it also sowed the seeds of today’s inflation and asset bubbles. Prices rose not just because of supply shortages—but because the system was awash in cheap money.
Will Mortgage Rates Return to the 3’s?
Here’s the tough truth: unless the U.S. faces another extreme deflationary shock—and the government responds with another round of near-zero interest rates and massive money printing—a return to 3% mortgage rates is highly unlikely in the near future.
Why?
- The Fed is now focused on controlling inflation, not stimulating the economy.
- The U.S. economy remains relatively strong, with low unemployment and steady consumer spending.
- Overstimulating again would risk repeating the inflationary spiral we’re currently trying to unwind.
In other words, the days of ultra-cheap money appear to be behind us—for now
Long-Term Average Mortgage Rates in America
Here’s some perspective:
- The long-term average 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. is around 7–8%.
- The early 2020s were an outlier, not a baseline.
- Historically, rates in the 3% range have only existed for about 2 out of the last 250 years—a statistical blip.
What This Means for Today’s Sellers and Heirs
If you’re waiting for rates to return to the 3’s, it could mean sitting on the sidelines indefinitely. Instead, heirs and estate representatives navigating real estate decisions today should focus on:
- Understanding current buyer behavior and borrowing conditions
- Exploring seller-paid buydowns or creative financing when needed
- Working with a team that knows how to position estate properties effectively in a high-rate environment
About Colorado Estate Services
At Colorado Estate Services, we help heirs, personal representatives, and estate attorneys navigate the complex real estate decisions that come with settling a loved one’s estate. Whether the market is surging or slowing, we’re here with:
- Multiple sale strategies including top-dollar MLS listings and fast cash offers
- Professional clean-outs and repairs, including up to $500 in cleaning expenses covered
- Remote closings with notary and title coordination
- Trusted vendor referrals including probate attorneys, appraisers, and estate liquidators
If you’re settling an estate and unsure how to handle the real property, don’t navigate it alone. Reach out to Colorado Estate Services—we’re here to help you move forward with confidence, clarity, and care.
